Boston Bruins 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings ·

19 May 2024, 00:00

By Shayna Goldman, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille

It’s weird enough to preview an NHL season that won’t involve Patrice Bergeron. It’s even harder to imagine the Boston Bruins preparing to play games without him.

They’ll have to figure out a way, though, to muddle through without the best defensive center of the past few decades (with the trophy case to prove it) and the engine of the franchise until the moment he retired. David Krejci, a neat bit of insulation down the middle for Boston, is gone too — and this time, for good.

Without them, the Bruins, coming off the best regular season in NHL history and the grandest playoff faceplant we’ve seen in quite some time, are forced to fall back on a 60-goal scorer, two Norris candidates and the defending Vezina Trophy winner. There are worst fates, but the season could get weird, no matter what.

The projection

There’s a lot of daylight between Boston in ninth and Florida in 10th — a three-point gap that separates the league’s legit contenders from the rest. Boston is at the bottom of that tier of near-playoff locks, though the Bruins current place in the league’s hierarchy is obviously difficult to project.

Losing Bergeron and Krejci at the same time hurts a lot, a ripple effect that would be difficult for any model to accurately quantify. On top of that, there’s also expected regression after last year’s historic regular season to consider. Those two factors mean Boston is guaranteed to be worse this season — the question is just how much.

Those suggesting the Bruins will miss the playoffs entirely didn’t learn a thing from last offseason when similar cries proved foolish. The roster is still very strong, especially on defense and in net. Boston’s defensive might should still be there. That can’t be ignored

Those who think the Bruins can still contend though — as The Model is suggesting — are probably being a little too bullish on a roster that saw its center core decimated. That so-called defensive might will be heavily tested without the best defensive center ever.

Maybe the Bruins can still be good after a cruel summer. Maybe even annoyingly great, again. They probably won’t be bad, but just OK is a real possibility. In any sense, there’s a lot more uncertainty with how it all shakes out compared to other teams.

Percentiles with the bar graphs are based on each player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating relative to their time-on-ice slot, i.e. the first forward is compared to other first forwards only.

The strengths

The Bruins stay consistent with one of their greatest strengths: Their defense, with a plus-35 Defensive Rating that ranks second in the league. That may come as a surprise without Bergeron. How the team manages to play in their own zone without The Bergeron Effect will be something to watch this season, but they’re expected to still be one of the best.

There are a number of players who contribute to that, especially on the backend. With a plus-16 Defensive Rating among their blueliners, no one stacks up to Boston.

That’s led by their number one, Charlie McAvoy.

Somehow McAvoy feels underrated compared to some of the leading defensemen in the league, and it’s probably because he isn’t as flashy of a scorer.

“He’s in the top six or seven (defensemen). He’s really good. He’s so strong and such a great skater. You almost don’t realize how good he is,” an NHL team front-office executive said.

Maybe had he not missed the first few weeks of the season, he would have had a better shot of being in the Norris Trophy conversation. But he should be expected to be a leading part of that conversation for years to come — he’s one of the best all-around defenders. His plus-17 net rating is thanks to his two-way dominance, which comes in behind only Cale Makar and Adam Fox. He’s even with Roman Josi, but for obvious stylistically different reasons.

McAvoy’s the best of both worlds for defensemen. He has the throwback vibes of a strong, physical defender who can use his body to gain possession. But he also is a modern defender with his proactive style. He’s among the best at retrieving pucks and moving them out of his own zone with control, which is a key part of the Bruins’ two-way abilities.

McAvoy is not alone as a Norris-caliber defenseman on that blue line. Hampus Lindholm actually finished just outside the top three, thanks to his complete, all-around strengths. What hurt his chances likely was a lack of scoring as well, and not being the mainstay on the top power-play unit is a factor there.

Lindholm’s 2022-23 season proved exactly what was seen post-trade deadline a year earlier: That a change of scenery was exactly what he needed to re-emerge as a top defenseman in the league. With a plus-10 Net Rating, he doesn’t just crush it as the Bruins’ second defenseman, he’s just as good, or better, than some teams’ number ones. As a result, Boston joins Colorado and Vegas as the only three teams with two defenders with a Net Rating above plus-10.

Brandon Carlo is average for his position as the team’s No. 3 defender, but his defensive impact is right there with McAvoy and Lindholm. They create a trifecta of elite defensive rearguards that no other team can match. Matt Grzelcyk, who rounds out the top-six, also carries a plus-five Defensive Rating and is a lot better than he’s given credit for. Despite his stature, he often fares very well next to McAvoy on the top pair and the two have very strong chemistry thanks to their compatible two-way ability.

Boston’s defensive strengths extend to their forward group, which ranks fourth in the league with a plus-nine Net Rating. There are pluses up and down the lineup, and maybe the forward best known for that two-way presence left on the roster is Brad Marchand.

Obviously, the test for the veteran will be to stand tall defensively without Bergeron at even strength and on the penalty kill, as he deals with the effects of age-related decline. But the Bruins’ captain still projects really highly as the team’s number three forward with a plus-13 Net Rating. His work in all three zones remains quite strong, though his scoring touch did fall off pretty dramatically last season to 2.08 points-per-60 at five-on-five.

Leading the way for Boston is obviously Pastrnak, who is kicking off the first year of his eight-year contract carrying a team-high $11.25 million cap hit.

Pastrnak is unsurprisingly the Bruins’ top offensive threat and is expected to be a top 10 forward league-wide this season. At five-on-five, he’s a dual threat who can generate his own scoring chances and set up his teammates. But the highlight of his game is obviously his dangerous shot. Pastrnak’s one of the top goal scorers in the league, but is more than just a one-dimensional threat.

Generally, centers drive their line, but the Bruins recognized Pastrnak has that capacity. That’s part of the reason why the team could comfortably break up The Perfection Line. And that dynamic, game-changing ability is why he’s the highest-rated skater in Boston in this year’s Player Tiers, as just one of nine skaters league-wide to be in MVP-territory.

The player who generally has joined that top line, with Pastrnak carrying the second, is Jake DeBrusk. That top line of Marchand, Bergeron, and DeBrusk rocked a 67 percent expected goals rate with even better results in 167 five-on-five minutes. Now the question, of course, is going to be how the wingers can carry that moving forward without their elite center. If DeBrusk can keep improving from here — he’s coming off a career year where he earned 2.79 points per 60, partially thanks to an uptick in shot volume and quality, it should limit a big decline from that new-look trio. DeBrusk blossoming into a true top-line player, as he’s expected to, would go a long way toward keeping the Bruins relevant. That’s especially true if his Defensive Rating can be trusted without Bergeron by his side.

With Charlie Coyle moving up to likely replace Bergeron or Krejci in the top six, Trent Frederic may slide over to center. As it stands, he already measures up well relative to his role. The gritty forward could gain even more value by filling a pivotal need.

Rounding out the Bruins’ strengths is obviously their goalie duo that features the reigning Jennings Trophy and Vezina Trophy winners.

Linus Ullmark ended the year with just seven regulation or overtime losses. He didn’t play the heftiest of workloads at 49 games and was well insulated by the Bruins’ defense, but he responded with top-notch play against that workload. Ullmark gave his team a chance to win in 38 games with a quality start, which made up 81 percent of his games. He saved 38.2 goals above expected.

Sharing the crease is Jeremy Swayman, who is an excellent 1B option. After a below-average second season, he thrived saving about 21 goals above expected in 37 games. If that’s a sign of what’s to come from the 24-year-old, it won’t be a surprise to see him push for more playing time this season.

Either way, with Ullmark and Swayman, the Bruins have a plus-11 Net Rating that grades as the fifth-best in the league. Some regression is naturally expected between the pipes here after last year’s unbelievable season, but this should still be an elite duo.

Is Pavel Zacha ready for a prime role with the Bruins? (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

The weaknesses

As strong as this Bruins team is — and it certainly looks so on paper — there are some very obvious gaps. Last year’s historic heights won’t be repeated, but even a return to the contender’s circle isn’t a given with how the team is currently constructed.

The biggest gap is obviously down the middle. Coyle is super effective as a third liner, but the top six is not where he belongs. His on-ice impacts have been weak the last few years and he doesn’t have a consistent track record producing efficiently. He was surprisingly okay in transition last season, but will still need to play with strong wingers to be effective in a top role. That doesn’t feel like an optimal spot to place him. The Bruins have massive shoes to fill between Bergeron and Krejci and Coyle just doesn’t cut it.

It helps having the positional flexibility of someone like Pavel Zacha, and possibly Frederic on that third line, who can shift from wing to the middle. But Zacha is coming off one of his best seasons yet, which happened while he primarily played wing. He was also a bit of a passenger with the puck, rarely taking a lead role in pushing play up ice. He flashed enough offensive skill last season that it might work out if he plays with Pastrnak again — his star power might just balance out the line and elevate Zacha to new heights. It’s just not ideal for a first-line center.

Bergeron and Krejci’s slots aren’t the only holes in the lineup that need to be filled. The departures of Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi are likely going to hurt too. It’s impossible to stay as deep as the 2022-23 Bruins, but at the time of the Hall trade, it seemed like an indicator that Bertuzzi would be sticking around. The fact that Boston now has neither is troubling, especially when looking at the replacements.

James van Riemsdyk has some upside as a net-front presence. But he’s also coming off the second-worst scoring season of his career. It may have been a product of his surroundings on a Flyers team that finally decided to rebuild, but his shot and scoring chance generation also took a hit last year. Maybe a strong team like Boston can help him rebound, but he seriously underwhelms relative to the depth the Bruins had in Hall and Bertuzzi. He’s not a top-six forward anymore.

Morgan Geekie doesn’t thrill either in a top-nine capacity and last year’s impressive 2.47 points-per-60 looks like an aberration given his on-ice shooting percentage. The rest of the third line doesn’t inspire and that isn’t aided by the feel-good return of Milan Lucic. He may bring the vibes and the fashion, but he doesn’t bring anything good to the ice anymore.

There aren’t a lot of holes on defense, especially if Brandon Carlo’s offensive shortcomings can be balanced out by playing with Lindholm. But there is one big drag in Derek Forbort. He’s great at killing penalties, but struggles at five-on-five — he was the only regular Bruins defender that was out-chanced last season.

The wildcard

Can Boston still be a top defensive team without the reigning Selke winner?

After losing Bergeron and Krejci it may have been a surprise to see the Bruins still rank inside the top 10. Just like last year, we’re not ready to bury Boston yet. Coming off a historical season offers a whole lot of leeway.

Part of the reason the Bruins are rated highly is because they’re still expected to be an elite defensive team. It makes sense given how strong they were in that regard last season (and every season before that), but it does also warrant some questioning.

No matter how good someone is at modeling hockey, interaction effects are still extremely difficult to tease out. We can look at what a player did on the ice, with or without certain players, but that may not perfectly credit each player’s utility toward that goal. That’s especially true when players play with superstar talents. How much of the success is real and how much is riding coattails?

Defensively it’s extra tricky and the Bruins are going to be an excellent case study for that. Is every player really this good defensively to the point Boston will be better than fine without Bergeron? Or are there hidden interaction effects from playing with Bergeron that are collectively overrating Boston’s projected defensive ability?

We don’t know for sure, but we can guess. It’s easy to believe that Boston’s top four defensemen are elite defensively and are worthy of a combined plus-20 Defensive Rating. It also wouldn’t be a shock to see that plummet without proper support up the middle.

There are a lot of offensive question marks for Boston that make people rightfully skeptical. Whether the Bruins can survive them enough to make the playoffs and even contend depends on how much of the team’s elite defensive ability holds over. It’s a tough ask without the Selke King — but not an impossible one.

The best case

Coyle and Zacha both produce like rock-solid second-line centers, mitigating the loss of Bergeron and Krejci. Pastrnak, McAvoy and Lindholm all have carbon copies of their 2022-23 seasons, staying at the top of statistical categories and award contender lists. Ullmark and Swayman continue providing nightly high-level goaltending. Boston makes the playoffs, wins a round and starts shopping for a 1C after the cap increases.

The worst case

Coyle and Zacha both produce like half-decent third-liners. Pastrnak has an ill-timed cold streak. Marchand starts to look his age and seems lost without Bergeron. The defense collapses without down-the-middle support. Ullmark and Swayman are both average. They miss the postseason.

The bottom line

For a team that looks safe according to the model, the Bruins feel anything but. After everything went right last season the team looks due for a drop-off and it’s hard to say just how far they’ll fall.

More than any other team there are questions regarding just how well they can survive their losses which have the potential to compound in a way that’s difficult to project. Things don’t look rosy with how the Bruins are currently constructed.

But plenty of people have tried to bury this team before, including and especially before last season. We know what happened next and it’s better to not doubt what this franchise can do. There’s a winning culture that’s difficult to extinguish and Boston looks like it still has enough to keep things going for one more season. Maybe more.